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Tropical Storm IVO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE REMAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW IN THIN
BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  BASED ON THIS AND THE CONTINUED
MOTION OVER COLDER WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35
KT.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS PRESENT...WHICH CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE
THE CENTER FINDING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10.  IVO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHEARS APART IN
24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STALL WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS
CONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
IVO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATER WEST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY
96 HR.
 
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  EVEN THOUGH IVO IS WEAKENING...MOISTURE
FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 22.9N 114.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 24.2N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 25.6N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 26.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1800Z 26.8N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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