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Tropical Depression NINE-E (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013
 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW TWO
SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ONE OF WHICH IS DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OTHER CONVECTIVE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED
FROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT. ONLY A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
DESPITE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...DUE TO THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD PATTERN. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR
AND STABLE AIR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SSTS OF AROUND 23C.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AND BECOME REINFORCED BY A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
STEADILY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND UKMET MODELS.
 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 18.7N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 19.7N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 21.2N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 22.8N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 24.5N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0600Z 27.0N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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