Tropical Storm HENRIETTE

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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013
 
RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS LOCATED A BIT SOUTH OF THE EARLIER
ESTIMATES.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS IS DUE
TO A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OR IF THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  THE SMALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW HAS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAPS
AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THERE IS
STILL A LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE STORM...DUE TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT
UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A
MORE CONSERVATIVE 40 KT.  THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS
HENRIETTE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE
UPDATED NHC FORECAST.  HENRIETEE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
 
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7 KT.
HENRIETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  AFTER THAT
TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE
TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
LESSENED THIS CYCLE...WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND
CLOSER TO REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 12.2N 126.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 12.2N 127.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 12.5N 129.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 13.1N 131.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 13.9N 132.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 16.0N 139.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 16.5N 143.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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