ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE CENTER OF GIL MOSTLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. GIL WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO DUE TO STABLE AIR NEAR THE CENTER AND PERSISTENT SHEAR. THERE REMAINS A REMOTE CHANCE THAT GIL COULD MAKE A COMEBACK IN A FEW DAYS WHEN IT MOVES INTO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THE SMALL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT THAT LONG. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY TURN WESTWARD BEYOND THAT TIME WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRACK CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.2N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 13.2N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 12.7N 140.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 12.4N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 12.3N 145.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 12.4N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z 12.5N 153.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC