ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK OVERNIGHT...IT LACKS BANDING FEATURES AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEARING APART. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 35 TO 65 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 50 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT MODERATE WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT GIL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THEREFORE...SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD. GIL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE...DUE IN PART TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW GIL INTERACTS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ITS EAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.0N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 14.8N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 14.5N 135.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 14.0N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 13.3N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 13.0N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 13.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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