ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND I DO NOT HAVE A GOOD REASON TO EXPLAIN IT SINCE BOTH SHEAR AND SSTS HAVE BEEN RULED OUT AS THE CAUSE. THE SHEAR IS LOW ACCORDING TO THE DIAGNOSIS PROVIDED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND GIL IS MOVING OVER 27.5 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...BUT GIVEN THE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS AND THAT IS PROBABLY GENEROUS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HOSTILE...GIL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GIL APPROACHES COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR. THE CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES BUT RECENT SSMI MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT GIL IS RIGHT ON TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH 5 DAYS. AS GIL WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IT COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BECOMES MUCH LARGER BEYOND 72 HOURS...WITH SEVERAL MODELS TAKING GIL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND OTHER MODELS FORECASTING GIL TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.6N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.6N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.5N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 14.5N 134.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 14.5N 137.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 13.5N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC