Hurricane GIL

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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
200 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013
 
IT APPEARS THAT GIL IS NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.  THE
CONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS BECOME QUITE COMPACT WITH NO INDICATION OF AN
EYE...AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE MORE OR LESS DISSIPATED. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD STEADY AT T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB
AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10 KT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE US/MEXICAN BORDER WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.  GIL WILL BE REACHING A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION
BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5.  IT SEEMS THAT GIL HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FREE
ITSELF FROM THE ITCZ...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM
GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH MAINLY BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND
THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.

EVEN THOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED...GIL
STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE.  DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...AND THE
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER SSTS. 
DESPITE THIS ENVIRONMENT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE LIMITS ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE BIGGEST INHIBITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND A LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE TOP END OR A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT THEN FOLLOWS A
WEAKENING RATE SIMILAR TO SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 14.3N 122.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 14.6N 124.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 14.9N 126.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 15.3N 130.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 15.3N 133.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 15.1N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 15.0N 140.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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