ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 200 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2013 GIL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST 3/4 OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.0 FROM TAFB AND THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT...WARRANTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. NEGLIGIBLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GIL COULD BEGIN TO INGEST A LITTLE MORE STABLE AIR...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...SHOWING GIL REACHING HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13 KT. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE GIL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND GIL SHOULD RESPOND BY SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM DAY 3 THROUGH 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE...AND THE ENTIRE SUITE OF MODELS HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH ON THIS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED SOUTHWARD...ENDING UP CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 13.3N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 13.8N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.4N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.8N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 15.2N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 15.7N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 16.0N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC