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Tropical Storm GIL (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS....WITH CURVED BANDING FEATURES
BECOMING NOTICEABLY BETTER DEFINED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...WITH
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS...WEAK SHEAR...AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS MODEL.
 
GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN A DAY OR TWO...SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 12.7N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 13.2N 117.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 13.9N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 14.5N 122.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 15.0N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 15.8N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 16.5N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 16.5N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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