Tropical Storm FLOSSIE

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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CHANGES WITH FLOSSIE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER...AND THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW SOME INNER CORE
FEATURES TRYING TO FORM.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS 6 HOURS
AGO...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY 45 KT.  FLOSSIE STILL HAS
SOME CHANCE TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR.  GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
COMMENCE IN A DAY OR SO AS FLOSSIE MOVES FARTHER INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

ASCAT AND TRMM DATA SHOW THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. 
FLOSSIE SHOULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 16.1N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 16.7N 134.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 17.5N 138.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 18.3N 141.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 19.0N 144.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 19.5N 150.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 19.5N 155.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/1200Z 20.5N 161.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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