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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE HAS CONSOLIDATED SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE MOST PROMINENT AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED
NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND SATCON ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE ABOUT THE SAME. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT
RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED
UPWARD TO 45 KT. FLOSSIE HAS ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT
TERM. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED DUE TO COOLER WATER...DRIER AIR...AND SOME INCREASE IN
WESTERLY SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
FLOSSIE IS ON A WESTWARD COURSE WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE BEING 275/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FLOSSIE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE
TIME FLOSSIE NEARS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 15.4N 130.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 15.8N 133.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 16.5N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 17.2N 139.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 17.9N 143.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 18.6N 149.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 19.5N 159.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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