Tropical Storm FLOSSIE

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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
800 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013
 
SINCE THE BIG BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...THE STRUCTURE
OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. IN FACT...
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT
FLOSSIE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS AND ADVERSE SHEAR MOST LIKELY WILL RESULT
IN WEAKENING THEREAFTER...AND FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.
 
MICROWAVE DATA AROUND 1200 UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS A LITTLE
BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE OVERALL 
MOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. FLOSSIE IS FULLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING FLOSSIE
ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A
WEAKER FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 15.3N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 15.5N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 16.2N 131.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 17.8N 137.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 20.0N 148.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 20.5N 154.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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