Hurricane ERICK
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HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 8 29 50 NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 4 12 28 46 38 NA
TROPICAL STORM 51 68 68 58 24 12 NA
HURRICANE 49 28 18 7 1 X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 47 25 15 7 1 X NA
HUR CAT 2 2 2 2 1 X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 55KT 45KT 30KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 6( 8) 30(38) 9(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 5( 7) 24(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MAZATLAN 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
P VALLARTA 34 7 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
MANZANILLO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 6 16(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
$$
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