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Tropical Storm ERICK (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
...HEAVY RAINS FROM ERICK AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.5N 103.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE...HURRICANE
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BETWEEN THE 18 AND 36
HOUR TIME FRAME.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERICK.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE
PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...
COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
 
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