Hurricane ERICK

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A SMALL CDO ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 70 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ERICK WILL
BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SO STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.  BY 72 H...ERICK WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 20 DEG C...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO
A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME.

BLENDING OF VARIOUS CENTER FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 310/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC TRACK FORECAST
REASONING.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS
IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NORTH OF
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PREDICTIONS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF ERICK AND THE FORECAST...THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED EAST OF MANZANILLO. 
ALSO...SINCE IT IS NOW UNLIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES IS ALSO DISCONTINUED.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 19.2N 106.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 20.1N 107.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 22.3N 110.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 23.3N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 24.8N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN