Tropical Storm ERICK

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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

ERICK IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...
AND IN A BAND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND TWO RECENT
ASCAT OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE AT LEAST 35 KT.  BASED ON
THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.

THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM
THE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK IS SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION 300/11.  OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  A COMBINATION OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE
ERICK TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE WILL THE CENTER BE TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  DURING THAT TIME...THE FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS TO THE RIGHT OF IT.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SUCH AS FORECAST BY THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED MODELS...WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITION ONTO
THE MEXICAN COAST.

ERICK IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN AMOUNT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER ERICK THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND SHOW THE
CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR.  ALSO...THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25
KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...
IF THE CENTER GETS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST...LAND INTERACTION COULD
RESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DOES NOT CALL FOR ERICK
TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 15.2N 101.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 15.9N 102.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 16.8N 103.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 17.6N 105.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 18.6N 106.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 22.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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