Tropical Storm COSME

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TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
200 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013
 
ALL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COSME HAS DISAPPEARED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF COSME HAVE DECOUPLED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  THE INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...NEAR AN AVERAGE OF A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES
FROM 0445 AND 0530 UTC.  WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24H...COSME IS PROBABLY
FINISHED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNLIKELY
TO REDEVELOP.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY LATE TODAY ALONG WITH A
SLOW WEAKENING OF THE WINDS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A BIT FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...290/14.  THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON TRACK AS IT REMAINS
SOUTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE REMNANTS OF COSME
WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE...AND SLOW SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TRACK CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 20.1N 119.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 20.7N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  28/0600Z 21.4N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1800Z 21.8N 127.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0600Z 21.8N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z 21.8N 134.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 22.0N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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