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Tropical Storm COSME (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
200 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013

COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  A COMBINATION OF CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
DISSIPATED...AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED
TO 50 KT BASED ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY AND THE DECAY OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THAT TIME.  THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY CONSTRAINED BY THE DECAY RULES OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF COSME SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.  SOME DECELERATION MAY OCCUR AROUND
96-120 HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF COSME APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

COSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 21C-24C.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A
CONVECTIONLESS REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...AND THIS COULD OCCUR
EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 19.3N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 19.9N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 21.6N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z 21.9N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z 22.0N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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