Hurricane COSME

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HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013
 
COSME LIKELY PEAKED WITH AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT AT 0000 AND 0600 UTC
BASED ON A BLEND OF VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN 18 NMI DIAMETER EYE IN WINDSAT...SSMIS...AND AMSU-B
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0100 UTC AND 0430 UTC. OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SINCE THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE CONVECTION ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY AS COSME
HAS BEGUN ITS TREK OVER COLDER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 70 KT.

AFTER THE MULTIPLE JOGS AND WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...HURRICANE COSME APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED INTO A NICE SMOOTH
MOTION OF 290/12 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MASSIVE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH...
AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER THAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

COSME IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER...REACHING SUB-22C SSTS BY 36
HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND THE ROBUST
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FACTORS THAT COULD POSSIBLY HELP COSME
RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS. BY 18-24 HOURS...
HOWEVER...THE MUCH COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING COLD UPWELLING
BENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...
WITH DEGENERATION INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...
IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL...WHICH
INDICATES DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS.
 
THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 18.4N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 20.6N 121.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 21.1N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0600Z 21.7N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0600Z 21.7N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z 21.7N 138.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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