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Hurricane COSME (Text)

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HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013
 
A BANDING EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT COSME NEARLY HAD A CLOSED EYEWALL AROUND 0000 UTC.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT.
HOWEVER...THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CLOSING.
COSME IS LOCATED OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND IS MOVING INTO A HOSTILE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT.
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT...AND COSME IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.
 
COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED AT 290/12.  WHILE THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER
COSME GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...ALLOWING COSME TO GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE.  AFTER
THAT...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE NEW
FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT
CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 17.9N 113.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 19.5N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 20.3N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 20.9N 123.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 21.7N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
 
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