Tropical Depression THREE-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE...WITH A LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER
FROM TAFB.  ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FAVOR STRENGTHENING...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY
HINDERING THE PACE OF DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A
BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODEL
SOLUTIONS.  INTERESTINGLY...THE DSHIPS FORECAST CALLS FOR A
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY IN 2-3 DAYS THAN DOES LGEM.  BY 72
HOURS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BE
WEAKENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

CENTER FIXES HAVE SIGNIFICANT SCATTER BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/6.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A PRONOUNCED 
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITHIN THE
NEXT 1-2 DAYS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHALLOW
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING WINDS. 
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 12.6N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 13.5N 105.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 15.1N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 16.2N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 17.0N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 20.5N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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