ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013 200 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013 BARBARA RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966. IT IS ALSO THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD. BARBARA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT CROSSES THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND BARBARA WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE SO DISRUPTED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THAT REGENERATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE GULF...WHICH WOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE REDEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...SHOULD BARBARA MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA OR ITS REMNANTS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WOULD EXACERBATE AN ALREADY DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT OVER THE REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.2N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0600Z 17.3N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 18.8N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0600Z 19.3N 94.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:15 UTC