Tropical Storm MELISSA

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TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013
500 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013

MELISSA IS HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE IT MOVING OVER
COLD WATERS.  SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT CONVECTION CONTINUES
NEAR THE CENTER AND IN ONE PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE.  HOWEVER...THE
CONVECTION IS ON THE WAY DOWN...WITH THE BAND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
MORE RAGGED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH EARLIER ASCAT DATA.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY START TO WEAKEN
TOMORROW WHEN IT ENTERS A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A MIX OF THE
PREVIOUS INTERPOLATED OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  
IT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THAT MELISSA WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TOMORROW...AND EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY
OR SO WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALL OF THE MODELS
SHOW MELISSA OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH WITHIN 3 DAYS.

THE LATEST MOTION IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AROUND 24
KT.  MELISSA SHOULD TURN EASTWARD TOMORROW AND SLOW AS IT MOVES
AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A RIDGE INTO WEAKER STEERING FLOW.  THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TAKE A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
AROUND THAT RIDGE BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE ECMWF SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 40.9N  32.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 41.7N  27.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  22/1800Z 42.2N  22.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0600Z 41.8N  18.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1800Z 40.5N  16.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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