Tropical Storm MELISSA

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TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013
1100 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013
 
MELISSA HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TRANSITION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...THE CLOUD
PATTERN EXHIBITS CURVED BANDS WITH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MELISSA HAS WEAKENED. 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ALSO CHANGED FROM
SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL STATUS AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT MELISSA SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36
HOURS.
 
THE STORM IS NOW ACCELERATING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060 DEGREES AT 26
KNOTS. THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH AND THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC FOREAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH
IN FACT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 35.6N  47.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 37.6N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 40.0N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 41.5N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  22/1200Z 42.5N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1200Z 42.0N  18.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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