ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX BRIEFLY IN 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND COMES IN PHASE WITH LORENZO. BY THAT TIME HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL HAVE WEAKENED SO MUCH THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THEREAFTER. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 5 KT. LORENZO IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE SLOWER MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE MOSTLY THE SAME. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST OF LORENZO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS...ALONG WITH FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO OR ITS REMNANT LOW TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 29.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 29.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 30.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 31.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 32.7N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:09 UTC