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TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 5 19 36 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 2 9 11 15 39 26 NA
TROPICAL STORM 92 79 69 58 38 27 NA
HURRICANE 6 11 19 23 4 12 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 11 17 20 3 9 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X 2 3 1 2 NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 35KT 25KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 21(24) 1(25) X(25)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 2(24) X(24)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 20(27) 1(28) X(28)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 15(23) 1(24) X(24)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 25(35) X(35) X(35)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 1(25) X(25)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 12(20) 31(51) X(51) X(51)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) 16(29) 16(45) 1(46) X(46)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 16(26) 21(47) X(47) X(47)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GULFPORT MS 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 18(35) 14(49) X(49) X(49)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
STENNIS MS 34 1 6( 7) 12(19) 18(37) 10(47) X(47) X(47)
STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11)
STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BURAS LA 34 3 11(14) 23(37) 21(58) 8(66) X(66) X(66)
BURAS LA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 13 22(35) 18(53) 10(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 7( 9) 14(23) 17(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 7 29(36) 21(57) 9(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 6( 6) 12(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 8(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:08 UTC