Tropical Storm KAREN

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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N  89.8W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  30SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N  89.8W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  89.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 25.9N  90.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.0N  90.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N  90.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.1N  89.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 32.5N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 37.5N  77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N  89.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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