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Tropical Storm JERRY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
500 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL MULTISPECTRAL AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
THERE ARE NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES...AND THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO.  BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT OR 270/1.  JERRY IS CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF A RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES.  A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN THIS RIDGE LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JERRY TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS SHOWN BY
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
IN TERMS OF DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED
BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST MOTION BRINGS JERRY OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DECAY.  INDEED...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT JERRY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY THE 72 HOUR POINT. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72
HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE.  AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO IS THAT JERRY DISSIPATES MUCH EARLIER AS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 28.1N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 28.9N  43.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 29.9N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 31.1N  40.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 32.2N  38.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 34.5N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 38.0N  27.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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