Hurricane INGRID

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HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
 
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING INGRID THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE
HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE NOAA P-3 REPORTED SEVERAL SFMR
WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE AFTER CORRECTING FOR THE INFLUENCE OF
RAIN...AND DATA FROM TWO DROPSONDES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986 MB IS BASED ON A
DROPSONDE FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AND THAT
VALUE HAS RISEN A BIT SINCE 00Z. OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH AN EXPANDING CDO FEATURE.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL...WHICH
WAS ALSO NOTED BY PERSONNEL ON THE NOAA AIRCRAFT. 
 
INGRID HAS INTENSIFIED DESPITE PERSISTENT MODERATE SHEAR...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLER HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST
TO THE LGEM MODEL. QUICK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT INGRID IS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 335/07. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THIS
CYCLE...WITH THE LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A FASTER MOTION. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD IN THIS PACKAGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNTIL
LANDFALL GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION.
THIS ADJUSTMENT PUTS THE NHC FORECAST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL...AND FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER
LANDFALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD DIP
IN THE TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
GIVEN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO BAHIA
ALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH TO
RIO SAN FERNANDO.
 
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW
RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A
SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 22.0N  95.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 22.4N  95.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 23.0N  96.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 23.0N  97.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/0000Z 22.7N  98.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0000Z 22.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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