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Hurricane INGRID (Text)

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HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
 
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA
OF INGRID UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EYE FEATURE HAS
BEEN PRESENT INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN...INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. INGRID IS THE SECOND HURRICANE OF
THE 2013 SEASON.
 
BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...
BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE LGEM/SHIPS MODEL PAIR. NONE OF
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS INGRID TO BECOME AN MAJOR
HURRICANE.
 
INGRID HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 OR 7 KNOTS AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOON...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL FORCE
THE HURRICANE TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. WHILE
THE THE WESTWARD TURN IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE
MODELS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL...KEEPING INGRID OVER WATER FOR
ABOUT 60 HOURS OR MORE WHILE THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO
THE COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING CREDIT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 21.3N  94.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 22.0N  94.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 22.7N  95.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 22.8N  97.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 22.5N  98.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 72H  17/1800Z 22.0N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/1800Z 21.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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