Tropical Storm INGRID

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TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
 
THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATED
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. OVERALL...THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED
FROM A DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET EARLIER TODAY WAS 999 MB.
SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...THE
NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. WE NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT THE STATISTICAL
SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INGRID TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE
TIME OF LANDFALL. 
 
INGRID IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST INGRID TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER
TEXAS...INGRID SHOULD MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO AND THEN MOVE INLAND. THIS IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
INGRID NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.       

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM
BOTH INGRID AND MANUEL WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. AT THIS
TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 19.2N  95.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 19.5N  95.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 20.8N  95.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 21.7N  96.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 22.3N  97.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 22.5N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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