Tropical Storm INGRID

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
SIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45
KNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO
40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
ALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BE
A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
AS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVING
ERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
TEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVES
THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER.
EVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO
AND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS.
 
IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN
MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/1500Z 19.4N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 19.5N  95.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 20.5N  95.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 21.3N  96.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 22.0N  97.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 23.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN