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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 16 2013
 
HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 60
NMI TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0000 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
AROUND 25 KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PASS
FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY
LOWERED TO 35 KT...ASSUMING THAT STRONGER WINDS COULD BE OCCURRING
IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WHICH WAS NOT CAPTURED BY THE ASCAT
DATA.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
IT IS CURRENTLY ENTANGLED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN IT MOVES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTER THAT TIME...A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WHEN
THE STORM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
 
STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING HUMBERTO.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
RECENT WEAKENING AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 27.0N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 28.0N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 29.0N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 30.0N  45.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 30.9N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 33.7N  43.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 40.0N  37.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 52.0N  26.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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