| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane HUMBERTO (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013
 
HUMBERTO IS ON A WEAKENING TREND...AND IT IS BARELY HANGING ON TO
HURRICANE STATUS. LATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOSING ORGANIZATION...AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD
PATTERN IS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH AN
AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT...AND THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS.  

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AS THE
STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING MORE DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10.
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN HUMBERTO MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. 

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER 25-26C WATERS AND MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER
SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LESSEN WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THESE MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IN
ADDITION...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HUMBERTO DEEPENING IN 3
TO 5 DAYS WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS.
THE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 24.4N  30.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 25.2N  31.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 26.0N  33.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 27.1N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 28.2N  38.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 30.3N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 32.5N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 35.5N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN