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Hurricane HUMBERTO (Text)

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HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013
 
THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
HURRICANE. DVORAK-BASED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE NOT YET DECREASED...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
75 KT. HUMBERTO SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. LATER ON...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE
WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX A LITTLE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST HINTS AT
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING BY LATE IN PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN INDICATED
HERE AT DAYS 4-5.

THE NORTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AT 350/12 KT. A LARGE MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES SHOULD
CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT
WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THE
NEW TRACK GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 23.1N  29.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 24.1N  30.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 25.2N  32.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 26.0N  34.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 26.8N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 28.8N  40.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 30.5N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 33.0N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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