Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T3.5 AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE ABOUT
THE SAME. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STORM MOTION IS DUE TO A BREAK DOWN
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
ANOTHER LOW BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 4 DAYS WHEN THE RIDGE
BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED HEADING CHANGES...AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS WHILE HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND SHEAR AND HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO. THESE UNFAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 14.4N  26.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 15.0N  27.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 16.2N  28.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 17.9N  28.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 20.0N  29.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 23.7N  30.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 25.5N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 26.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN