Tropical Storm GABRIELLE
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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 6 8 8 8 10
TROP DEPRESSION 15 20 20 23 18 20 22
TROPICAL STORM 83 72 67 59 59 58 55
HURRICANE 2 7 7 10 15 15 14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 6 6 9 13 13 12
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 2 2 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 9(23) 3(26) X(26)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) 4(20) 2(22) X(22)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 9(10) 8(18) 2(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PONCE 34 46 4(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) 1(52) X(52)
SAN JUAN 34 15 3(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
SAINT THOMAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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