Tropical Storm FERNAND

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TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT...AND MEXICAN COASTAL OBSERVING STATIONS SACV4 AND VERV4
IN VERACRUZ HARBOR HAVE REPORTED 10-METER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT
AND 44 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AND 63 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THAT WIND DATA...THE INTENSITY OF
FERNAND HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ IN A FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY
BE ONGOING BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE REPORTS AND A RECENT
BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTAINING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/08 KT...AND IS BASED MAINLY
ON MODEL GUIDANCE. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FERNAND SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES PARALLEL TO
RATHER THAN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FERNAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE VERACRUZ METROPOLITAN AREA TONIGHT AND BE INLAND BY 0600 UTC.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FERNAND.  THESE RAINS COULD TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 19.3N  96.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 19.7N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  27/0000Z 20.3N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36H  27/1200Z 21.0N  99.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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