Tropical Depression SIX

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013
 
ANIMATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM ALVARADO MEXICO...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM
VERACRUZ AND CAOATZACOALCOS MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS DELAYED DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...BUT IS NOW EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE TO GET A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. 
THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND STRENGTHENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. 
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTERWARDS AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...OR SOONER.
 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE...270/10....IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL CAUSE A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT
THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 19.5N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 19.9N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 20.4N  97.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  27/0600Z 21.1N  99.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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