ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. ERIN IS STILL OVER 25-26C WATERS...AND ALTHOUGH THE SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF DRY STABLE AIR COMBINED WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ERIN DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THIS CERTAINLY COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY AT LEAST A FEW MODELS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. A SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. A TURN TO THE LEFT...OR WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. IF ERIN SURVIVES BEYOND A FEW DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.8N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 20.5N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 21.1N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 22.6N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 25.0N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 28.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:55 UTC