Tropical Storm DORIAN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1500 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 3 6 8 9 9 11
TROP DEPRESSION 11 21 23 26 27 24 26
TROPICAL STORM 87 71 65 59 57 58 54
HURRICANE 2 5 6 8 8 10 9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 4 5 7 7 9 8
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
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FORECASTER PASCH
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