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Tropical Storm CHANTAL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013               
1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1      10      15      26      31      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 34      49      47      45      38      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  65      41      36      28      30      NA      NA
HURRICANE        X       1       1       2       2      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       1       1       1       2      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    30KT    25KT    25KT    25KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   9( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  5   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KINGSTON       34  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LES CAYES      34 43   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CAPE BEATA     34 57   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
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