Tropical Storm CHANTAL
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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
0900 UTC WED JUL 10 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 10 15 19 26 29 38
TROP DEPRESSION 31 49 45 41 36 31 31
TROPICAL STORM 67 40 38 37 36 37 29
HURRICANE 1 1 2 2 2 3 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 35KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 1(15)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) 1(16)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 3(16) 1(17)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
LES CAYES 34 5 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 25 11(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
CAPE BEATA 34 47 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
PUERTO PLATA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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