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Tropical Storm CHANTAL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
500 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013
 
CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.  OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT VERY
WELL ORGANIZED AND LACKS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND ASCAT DATA.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE CHANTAL LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO RACE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 290/23.  A CONTINUED FAST
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE STORM REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE CHANTAL ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER THIS MORNING...AND NEAR HISPANIOLA ON
WEDNESDAY.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AND CAUSE CHANTAL TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST.  A SLIGHT LEFT TURN IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MODELS SHOW A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CHANTAL BY THAT TIME.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER...TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
 
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS CHANTAL
REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE WIND
SHEAR.  PRONOUNCED WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED WHEN CHANTAL MOVES
OVER OR INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.  IF THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES ITS TREK ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY
AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE BAHAMAS.  ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS IN
LINE WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 13.3N  58.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 14.6N  61.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 16.3N  65.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 18.2N  69.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 20.1N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 23.5N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 26.5N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 28.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
 
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