ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012 ROSA IS SLOWLY LOSING THE BATTLE WITH SHEAR. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS DISORGANIZED...WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING...AND THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE STORM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST. ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE STORM CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD. FINALLY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLOSE ON THE FUTURE COURSE OF ROSA...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWEST TO WEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD PATH. ONLY THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE OUTLIERS NOW...BUT THOSE MODELS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST GIVEN THEIR LONG-TERM BIASES IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...GENERALLY WITH A SMALL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT AT MOST FORECAST POINTS...AND LIES A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 13.2N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 13.0N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 13.0N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.1N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 13.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 14.5N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 16.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:45 UTC