ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012 800 PM PDT THU NOV 01 2012 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH ROSA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MICROWAVE AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST...AS ROSA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE CURRENT MOTION APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY...AND LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS ROSA IS SITUATED EAST OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SOUTH OF A FLAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING AS A MID-LEVEL LOW FORMS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH OF ROSA. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME LATERAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE SPREAD HAS DECREASED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW CYCLES. SINCE THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 13.7N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 13.6N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 13.5N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 13.5N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 13.7N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 14.9N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 16.7N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 19.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:45 UTC