ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012 200 PM PDT THU NOV 01 2012 THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH ROSA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPARENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS...AND THIS VALUE REMAINS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS...ROSA HAS TEMPORARILY MISSED THE STRONGEST SHEAR. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A LARGE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 48H AND CAUSE ROSA TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THUS THE NHC FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS. MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT ROSA HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY...AND MAYBE EVEN SOUTHWARD RECENTLY. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LITTLE NET MOTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIKE LOOKING AT A BROKEN RECORD SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH MOSTLY THE SAME GFS-BASED GUIDANCE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...AND THE GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET/HWRF ON THE LEFT SIDE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THE HFIP CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW IN CLOSER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE AIDS...RESULTING IN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 13.5N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 13.3N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.1N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.1N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 13.3N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 15.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:45 UTC