Hurricane PAUL

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012               
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105  
KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       8      42      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       3      28      40      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   X      10      52      57      18      NA      NA
HURRICANE       99      90      44       7       1      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3      51      36       6       1      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2       35      30       7       1       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3       59       8       1       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        3       1       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  100KT    85KT    70KT    50KT    30KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   2( 2)  18(20)  20(40)   5(45)   X(45)   X(45)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  1   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   6( 6)  15(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
LA PAZ         50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   3( 3)  28(31)   9(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLA CLARION   50 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN                                               
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