Tropical Storm PAUL
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 2 23 42 NA
TROP DEPRESSION X X 4 15 41 39 NA
TROPICAL STORM 16 22 52 64 33 19 NA
HURRICANE 84 78 43 19 3 1 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 79 59 35 16 3 1 NA
HUR CAT 2 6 15 7 3 X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X 4 2 1 X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 65KT 55KT 35KT 25KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 13(24) X(24) X(24)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLA CLARION 34 51 45(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
ISLA CLARION 50 5 66(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
ISLA CLARION 64 1 37(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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