Tropical Storm PAUL
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
2100 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 2 22 41 NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 3 14 40 39 NA
TROPICAL STORM 72 50 50 63 35 20 NA
HURRICANE 28 49 47 22 3 1 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 27 43 37 18 3 1 NA
HUR CAT 2 X 5 7 3 X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 1 X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 65KT 65KT 55KT 35KT 25KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) X(23)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA CLARION 34 4 75(79) 6(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
ISLA CLARION 50 X 30(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
ISLA CLARION 64 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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